Economic and Health Burden of Low Dairy Intake

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Canada, with direct and indirect annual costs of over 21.2 billion dollars. Osteoporosis is another common chronic disease with over 200 million people affected worldwide. Numerous epidemiological studies suggest that CVD and osteoporosis share common risk factors. One of the leading risk factors for the high incidence of CVD and osteoporosis is a suboptimal diet, including inadequate intake of dairy food. Released in 2019, the new Canada's Food Guide has created controversies about milk and alternatives consumption by removing it as a stand-alone food group. To our knowledge, no detailed analyses exist of the impact of low consumption of dairy products on CVD and osteoporosis, from a health economics perspective in the Canadian context. This study aims to provide insights as to the potential health and economic consequences that low dairy food consumption could create in the next 20 years. Study outcomes can help to better understand the effects of changes in dairy consumption, such as those recommended in Canada's Food Guide. Using microsimulation models, we will provide robust information on preventable CVD and osteoporosis incidence. These models simulate a cohort of a representative sample of an adult Canadian population using different CVD and osteoporosis-related epidemiological data to predict the incidence of CVD and osteoporosis events through the current and optimal level of dairy food consumption scenarios. In addition, achieving CVD and osteoporosis control is associated with reduction in medical costs, better work productivity and improvement in quality of life. Thus, we will make estimations on direct and indirect costs saved by optimal dairy consumption. Providing information on the magnitude of the problem is an essential first step in the development and implementation of effective programs at various levels of public health and nutrition settings across the country to encourage a healthier diet, such as one that values the proper intake of dairy products.